The St. Louis Federal Reserve has added two new series about unemployment. They now track unemployment median (FRED_UEMPMED) and average durations (FRED_UEMPMEAN), in weeks. For whatever reason, the median only extends back since 1967, whereas the average extends back from 1948. I personally prefer to look at median, which is the number of weeks half of the people stay unemployed, because it is less sensitive to truncation (when people abandon job search).
The statistics are a bit worrisome. First of all, there is an unmistakable upwards trend in duration of employment – which is more visible in the average series. The current median is 18 weeks – more than 4 months – the highest it’s been on record. In early 2007, the most recent bottom in employment rate at around 4.5%, it was about 8 weeks. In the 1982 crisis, when unemployment hit 11%, the median unemployment rate was only about 12 weeks.
For a given fixed unemployment rate, if we have longer median unemployment, it means one thing: fewer people are laid off, but when they are, they do not go back to work for a longer time.
There is plenty of room for debate as to why this would be the case. Puritans would tell you that people are getting lazy, and unemployment benefits are just too good. Socialists might deplore that this is a proof of opportunity inequality: a certain class of people is targeted for layoffs, and when they lose their current job, all hope is lost. Skeptics would question the accuracy of the statistics.
Whatever the case, it does not look good to me – unemployment is becoming a serious hardship.
Links:
A paper from the NY Fed
A paper from the SF Fed
Books:
Unemployment Dynamics in the United States and West Germany
Hardest Times: The Trauma of Long-Term Unemployment
Series of interest:
Median unemployment duration
Average (mean) unemployment duration
Median unemployment duration and unemployment rate