World by chartsThere has been some agitation around the situation with wheat. Like a commodity, its long-term price is determined by supply, demand, and inventory.
The graphs below shed some light on the current inventory in the context of the last quarter of century. USDA’s Economic Research Service provides the freshly imported data.
As you can see, the supply is roughly constant after 1989. In the 90s we saw a similar period of relatively low inventory, which tended to maintain price at levels comparatively similar to today’s, with some volatility.
Because of technological advances and global warming, one might believe that the secular trend for price per bushel is down.
Series of interest:
Inventory (beginning and ending each quarter)
Monthly wheat commodity price, adjusted by CPI
Bakery and products employment
